Global life insurance premiums are expected to grow by 2.3% in real terms in 2026, above the long-term trend, according to Swiss Re Institute’s latest sigma report.
Higher yields continue to support savings and annuity business, while emerging markets benefit from favourable demographics, regulatory reforms and rising insurance penetration, the report added.
Global non-life premium growth is forecast to slow to 0.6% in real terms in 2026, significantly below the long-term trend of 3.6% (2015-2024 compound annual growth rate).
“Advanced markets drive the slowdown, while emerging markets remain relatively resilient,” the report stated.
“The longer the inflationary pressures from the Middle East conflict persist, the greater the risk that its effects feed through to repair, replacement and liability costs, thereby partially offsetting downward pressure on pricing. This suggests that the current cycle may be shallower than past soft markets, with insurers likely to reprice more sharply if large losses, inflation and capital signals deteriorate beyond expectations.”
Despite softer pricing conditions and rising claims inflation, non-life insurers remain profitable. Swiss Re Institute has forecast return on equity of 11.4% in 2026, from a 14% peak in 2025, and to 7.7% in 2028. Still-elevated investment returns provide the main cushion against the underwriting cycle downturn.
